Clive Mason/Getty Images The last time Spain played Italy in the European Championships, it was what everyone dreads on Sunday—a sour goalless draw. Spain prevailed after extra time, 4-2, on penalties.
So why should it be any different this time around?
First, there are likely to be only four Italian and six Spanish survivors at most from that previous match.
Second, this is the Final.
Surely, Spain could not produce another boring match like the one against France? They have come in for growing criticism from those who may have noticed ""the Emperor's new clothes." Is it possible that our fascination with Spain's eight midfielders and tiki taka football is coming to an end?
What people want above all from tournament matches is an end product. Let's hope we get it big time on Sunday.
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Rightly so, the sensible pundits have been lambasting England's lack of skill, flair and guile as meaning they will not win a tournament in the foreseeable future.
On the other hand, Spanish and Italian lads are born with ball skills. Although Italy defended well against Germany, they were also pinging the ball around all over the park and making the Germans look like statues in the first half.
Spain also can make any team look ordinary, but the big question mark is whether they have sufficient end product. The midfield are predominantly Barcelona players, but they have no Messi. Many observers believe that Torres or Llorente should be played to give an alternative out to the complex passing moves.
Italy are no slouches when it comes to passing either. Led by the peerless Pirlo, they have developed as a team through the Euros and, with their confidence growing, have shown they can pass as well as their Latin cousins.
The difference is that they have a proper defence and a proper centre-forward in Balotelli.
So why should we expect more than the chess game in the opening round of their Group?
There are a number of reasons:
This is a final where everything is on the line, including Spain's third successive win in a major tournament;
Italy scored first and broke Spain's run of 14 successive wins in that match;
The Spanish players look and are tired out. One statistic shows that their 23 players had played 17,000 minutes more football than their Italian counterparts last season;
Italy's stock is rising;
Spain's is waning—they could easily have gone out to Portugal, who played all out to win in their 0-0 draw;
Spain played 120 minutes and penalties.
The ideal is for Italy to score first again and make the Spanish go for it as Germany did in the second half. Then we can have our classic.
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Spain and Barcelona have become famed for playing the best football in the world. It was a no-brainer for Del Bosque to pretty much follow the Barca formula and pack midfield.
But it didn't work against Portugal, who came out to play, and nearly didn't against France despite the latter being awful.
Let's hope we don't end up with a morass of 12 midfielders jousting with each other in the middle 40 yards of the pitch. We deserve better than that, and the quality on show should deliver better with a trophy on the line.
Any Spanish tiredness may help, because ennui and lethargy produce mistakes.
The Italy-Germany match has shown how well Italy can play in and through midfield. It has also shown that the Italian defence should not be underrated in terms of skill or commitment.
With the right organisation, Italy can withstand the Spanish midfield, play through, round and over them and make a match of it. If they score first, we could have a feast.
At the heart of the two best midfields are the two best midfielders of the tournament:
Iniesta is one of the greatest midfielders ever and, with Xavi, orchestrates and dictates so many of Spain's attacks, as they do at Barcelona. They have an uncanny understanding.
Pirlo, on the other hand, has been a revelation. Pensioned off in Milan, he was picked up by Juventus and led them to the Serie A title, coming in on a Bosman!
He has played the archetypal quarterback role for Italy, together with exquisite ball skill. Surely he now deserves the ultimate reward. Pass the baton, Iniesta...
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Finally, when Italy scored in the first match, Spain came out to play. After Fabregas had equalised, Torres came on in the 74th minute. Suddenly, he looked back to near his best. There was an out for the crosses that Spain put in.
They broke out of the shackles, and both sides made a game of it, even though ultimately a draw suited both.
Not this time around.
People have talked in this tournament of the emerging German team possibly dominating. When it came down to it, it didn't happen.
People talk about Spain being the best team in the world, as they did with France in 2006 when Italy beat them.
Is it time to talk instead about the emerging Italian team with experience at its heart and talent and energy to burn?
If it comes down to the Italian defence against the Spain offence, Italy will prevail. Spain don't really have a plan B if they can't pass Italy to death.
Unless they put the match away early, the Italian confidence will grow; they also have the ability to pass round and through the opposition as they showed in abundance against the vaunted Germans.
In the end, they completely wore them down, scoring two goals in the old-fashioned way.
Spain can't do that, because even with Torres on the pitch, they don't set up that way. He often has to play as an extra midfielder, coming in from the wings to score. Balotelli is a proper No. 9, not a ghost, and Di Natale can play the same way.
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Del Bosque is a wily old fox who knows how to build and win with Spanish teams, both in La Liga and at international level.
He played for Real Madrid for 14 years and has managed them three times.
He has overseen Spain's most successful period ever.
Prandelli has also played and managed at the very top of the Serie A. He may only have been Italian manager for a couple of years but in my opinion, has already emerged as the manager of the tournament.
His flexibility and pragmatism held Spain in the first match before qualifying. His team thrashed England 0-0 in the quarterfinal. He has the almost unique ability to get something out of Mario Balotelli.
This will be perhaps the most fascinating aspect of the coming Final: what teams each will choose and how they will set up.
Will Prandelli play three at the back again as he did in their first encounter, very effectively?
Will Del Bosque persevere with what looks like eight midfielders, or will he risk Torres or even Llorente in search of a result.
The use of Balotelli as a lone striker has worked well and the rest of his team has not let Prandelli down, so we should see a clash of styles that could make for an exciting match with among the best ball skills in the world at its heart.
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Casillas may be the best goalkeeper in the world, but try telling Gianluigi Buffon that.
Both are their country's captain.
On the night, they may both need to put in one of their greatest performances ever. That will help to make it an exciting, thrilling and absorbing contest.
Let's hope it doesn't come down to penalties, because neither deserves to be beaten.
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Apart from Mario Balotelli, Daniele de Rossi may have the single biggest influence on this Final.
Hurrah, at last, a proper ball-winning midfielder.
He has been favourably compared to Roy Keane, and Manchester United would love him.
He can make the difference on the night. Against Germany, he won tackle after tackle, and no Spanish midfielder will willingly take him on.
If he can break up the Spanish attacks, he is a good enough ballplayer to help set up Italian attacks.
He is not alone, as in general, the Italians are better defensively than the Spanish, who rely on a harrying and crowding style to try and win the ball back or pressure the ball-carrier into errors.
Wayne Rooney and Ashley Young came in for stick against Italy for losing possession. Credit where credit is due, the Italians systematically robbed the English front men of possession, leaving them no room to pass or play. They can do the same against Spain.
But these ball-winners can play too.
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Balotelli has been a revelation in this tournament. If he goes on to win the Golden Boot, Italy will win the trophy. And why shouldn't he?
The young Italian "wild man" has moderated all his excesses: been sensible and thoughtful, played as a lone striker, tracked and tackled back as needed and scored three goals already.
What more could you want? If his worst crime is to get booked for taking his shirt off, he's doing alright.
Prandelli has worked miracles, and Balotelli has worked his socks off for his teammates.
He could have and should have had a bundle of goals against England in a ploy that saw him in space behind the defence time and again. This worked against Germany also.
Everybody thinks the Spanish defence is vulnerable. Now is the time to find out.
Balotelli is only 21 and has the potential to be an awesome talent. He has come of age in the Euros. Now is the time to truly become "Super Mario" and a legend overnight—something he covets.
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Ideally, we need a goal from Italy early. Then this can become a classic, because the Spanish will come out to play.
Even if Spain score early, this may happen. And if Italy score first, the experts in Catenaccio surely wouldn't risk sitting on a lead for three-quarters of a match?
Spain surely cannot defend a lead. They must keep going for a win, and therefore, if they do score early, we could see a feast of goals.
I somehow don't think this will be another 0-0 draw (at least I desperately hope not).
Right now, the way they have been playing, these could be two of the three or four best teams in the world. They need to entertain to prove it with the world watching.
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From 2007 to 2009, Spain had a 35-game unbeaten streak.
They qualified for the 2010 World Cup with 10 wins out of 10.
The last team to beat Spain in any match was England, in a friendly; before that, it was Italy...
For both Barcelona and Spain, the one question mark that keeps cropping up is their defence. Chelsea knocked Barca out of the Champions League.
Real Madrid knocked them off their perch in La Liga—comfortably in the end.
Spain are largely Barcelona plus Real Madrid. Their playing style and setup is pure Barcelona. But there's no Messi, and Fabregas is a poor substitute.
They completely failed to break down a disciplined and spirited Portugal team in 120 minutes. Italy are rampant right now.
Portugal should have won if Ronaldo could have put away what was, for him, a routine chance.
There is no Carles Puyol. If Italy can run rings round a very strong, physical side in the Germans, what can they do to the Spanish?
Casillas is their last line of defence, but he alone cannot prevent the Spanish defence from being exposed.
Let's hope we see that on Sunday.
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